Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -225 LUC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -6.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -8.1 (+3.9) | 137.5 (-1.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -6.3 (+5.7) | 136.3 (-0.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -6.6 (+5.4) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -5.9 (+6.1) | 138.1 (-2.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2022 | LUC 66 – 50 BRAD |
| Feb 10, 2022 | BRAD 68 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2022 | LUC 78 – 71 BRAD |
| Jan 26, 2021 | LUC 65 – 58 BRAD |
| Jan 24, 2021 | LUC 69 – 56 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#63) | 6.0 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#81) | 1.55 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#80) | 1.75 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#34) | 0.572 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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