Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD +275 LUC -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +13 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -7.1 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -4.4 (-8.6) | 128.4 (-3.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -5.2 (-7.8) | 131.6 (-6.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -4.5 (-8.5) | 131.4 (-6.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -5.0 (-8.0) | 131.5 (-6.5) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | BRAD 74 – 62 LUC |
| Mar 4, 2022 | LUC 66 – 50 BRAD |
| Feb 10, 2022 | BRAD 68 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2022 | LUC 78 – 71 BRAD |
| Jan 26, 2021 | LUC 65 – 58 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 56.4 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#111) | 13.6 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#149) | 1.18 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#176) | 1.78 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#92) | 0.537 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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