This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
Missouri Valley Conference · Carver Arena · January 26, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread LUC -7.5 Home covered
O/U 130.5 Under
Money BRAD +260 / LUC -275
Model Predictions
Spread Total BRAD win
Actual LUC +7 123 Lost
Massey LUC -8.1 (+1.1) — —
Massey Totals — 126.3 (-3.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 31% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 16% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LUC -5.8 (-1.2) 127.5 (-4.5) 26% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LUC -5.3 (-1.7) 129.9 (-6.9) 28% ✓
Baseline ML LUC -6.2 (-0.8) 130.4 (-7.4) 22% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LUC -6.7 (-0.3) 129.2 (-6.2) 22% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 20, 2024 BRAD 74 – 62 LUC
Mar 4, 2022 LUC 66 – 50 BRAD
Feb 10, 2022 BRAD 68 – 61 LUC
Jan 8, 2022 LUC 78 – 71 BRAD
Jan 24, 2021 LUC 69 – 56 BRAD

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BRAD LUC
Overall 12-16 26-5
Conference 6-12 16-2
Home 8-6 13-0
Away 2-9 8-3
Neutral 2-1 5-2
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.2 70.1
Avg Pts Against 68.1 56.4
Massey 3.4 (#116) 14.0 (#23)
Bradley-Terry 0.15 (#163) 1.40 (#77)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.22 (#183) 1.95 (#74)
RPI 0.536 (#105) 0.555 (#82)
Shooting & Four Factors BRAD LUC
FG% 44.4% 50.8%
3PT% 32.1% 36.2%
REB / G 38.0 32.6
OREB / G 10.5 7.4
AST / TO 1.06 1.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.9% 57.7%
TOV% 19.4% 17.6%
ORB% 29.9% 25.1%
FT Rate 17.4% 21.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.1% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 22.1%
DRB% 73.4% 78.8%
Opp FT Rate 18.6% 18.6%

Game Analysis

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