Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD +260 LUC -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +7 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -8.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -5.8 (-1.2) | 127.5 (-4.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -5.3 (-1.7) | 129.9 (-6.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -6.2 (-0.8) | 130.4 (-7.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -6.7 (-0.3) | 129.2 (-6.2) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | BRAD 74 – 62 LUC |
| Mar 4, 2022 | LUC 66 – 50 BRAD |
| Feb 10, 2022 | BRAD 68 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2022 | LUC 78 – 71 BRAD |
| Jan 24, 2021 | LUC 69 – 56 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 56.4 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#116) | 14.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#163) | 1.40 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#183) | 1.95 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#105) | 0.555 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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