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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–8 on winners spread MAE 8.1 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Auburn @ Arkansas -0.8 152.2 58% 76–80 ✗
Kentucky @ South Carolina -9.3 143.3 20% 86–76 ✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan State +4.1 137.0 71% 70–62 ✗
Evansville @ Indiana State +8.7 133.4 77% 65–56 ✗
Manhattan @ Rider +1.0 142.4 57% 67–76 ✓
Marist @ Monmouth +7.7 137.9 83% 83–58 ✗
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +6.6 136.8 76% 51–76 ✓
Lipscomb @ Liberty +14.3 145.1 87% 69–78 ✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU +4.1 133.8 72% 73–77 ✓
Iowa State @ West Virginia +1.0 131.0 55% 63–79 ✓
Rhode Island @ VCU +6.3 128.1 73% 64–73 ✓
Saint Louis @ La Salle -10.6 149.5 21% 75–57 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ball State +8.8 149.7 82% 89–85 ✗
Ohio @ Toledo +4.6 147.4 67% 62–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +8.9 142.5 84% 57–62 ✓
Bowling Green @ Kent State +5.6 152.7 75% 68–76 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo +10.9 152.9 86% 64–102 ✓
LSU @ Texas A&M -3.3 135.8 35% 76–68 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas -1.1 146.2 38% 76–67 ✓
East Carolina @ Tulsa +3.7 141.3 64% 73–71 ✗
Syracuse @ Boston College -2.8 145.9 38% 73–64 ✓
Akron @ Northern Illinois -6.3 131.6 25% 70–64 ✓
Villanova @ St. John's -4.4 148.6 31% 75–69 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +6.2 154.2 76% 68–84 ✓
Wichita State @ UCF +1.4 137.1 57% 66–71 ✓
Butler @ Creighton +7.9 129.1 76% 52–54 ✓
Missouri @ Vanderbilt +8.6 134.6 77% 62–70 ✓
Utah State @ Wyoming +4.5 142.1 68% 76–78 ✓
Michigan @ Penn State +0.4 131.5 49% 58–57 ✗
Indiana @ Northwestern +0.8 141.2 56% 51–59 ✓
Pacific @ USC +18.8 137.8 90% 68–74 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +15.9 144.1 89% 69–68 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State +1.0 143.9 56% 61–71 ✓
Air Force @ UNLV +9.4 133.5 82% 44–78 ✓
UCLA @ Stanford -5.4 139.2 33% 79–70 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Santa Clara +0.6 142.7 54% 72–77 ✓
Colorado State @ Nevada -5.8 148.2 31% 82–72 ✓
Columbia @ Cornell +13.1 156.3 87% 75–88 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Asheville +9.9 135.9 79% 53–69 ✓
Georgia @ Florida +13.2 147.0 87% 63–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.