Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -4.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -4.1 (-12.1) | 136.6 (-4.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -4.0 (-12.0) | 137.3 (-5.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -4.1 (-12.1) | 137.0 (-5.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -3.6 (-11.6) | 137.5 (-5.5) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WIS 92 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | WIS 77 – 74 MSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MSU 71 – 62 WIS |
| Jan 27, 2024 | WIS 81 – 66 MSU |
| Dec 6, 2023 | WIS 70 – 57 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#22) | 11.2 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#15) | 3.48 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#15) | 3.87 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#15) | 0.647 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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