Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -235 WIS +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +13 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -6.7 (-19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.8 (-15.8) | 130.3 (-3.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -3.2 (-16.2) | 132.1 (-5.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -3.2 (-16.2) | 131.9 (-4.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -1.9 (-14.9) | 132.9 (-5.9) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WIS 92 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | WIS 77 – 74 MSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MSU 71 – 62 WIS |
| Jan 27, 2024 | WIS 81 – 66 MSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | MSU 69 – 65 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#32) | 10.2 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#191) | 2.03 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#125) | 3.30 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#211) | 0.594 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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