Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -190 WIS +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -3.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -4.7 (+4.3) | 144.9 (-11.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -4.4 (+4.6) | 144.9 (-11.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -4.5 (+4.5) | 145.0 (-12.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -4.9 (+4.1) | 146.0 (-13.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WIS 92 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | WIS 77 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | WIS 81 – 66 MSU |
| Dec 6, 2023 | WIS 70 – 57 MSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | MSU 69 – 65 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#12) | 18.2 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#7) | 2.96 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.25 (#8) | 3.97 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#9) | 0.612 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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