Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -4.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -3.4 (-5.4) | 138.6 (+5.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -3.9 (-5.9) | 140.6 (+3.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -3.7 (-5.7) | 141.3 (+2.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -3.9 (-5.9) | 140.9 (+3.1) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | TLSA 93 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ECU 85 – 76 TLSA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | ECU 84 – 79 TLSA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ECU 62 – 57 TLSA |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ECU 62 – 60 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#161) | -1.2 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#239) | 0.14 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#209) | 0.01 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#273) | 0.484 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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