Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +360 TLSA -470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +27 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -13.7 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -11.2 (-15.8) | 154.4 (+4.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -10.5 (-16.5) | 151.9 (+7.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -12.4 (-14.6) | 152.1 (+6.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -11.9 (-15.1) | 153.5 (+5.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2025 | ECU 85 – 76 TLSA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | ECU 84 – 79 TLSA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ECU 62 – 57 TLSA |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ECU 62 – 60 TLSA |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ECU 76 – 66 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-10 | 16-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#258) | 11.0 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#254) | 1.48 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#269) | 1.81 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#252) | 0.569 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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