Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA +165 ECU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +9 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -4.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -3.0 (-6.0) | 140.9 (+20.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -2.8 (-6.2) | 142.3 (+18.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -2.9 (-6.1) | 138.5 (+22.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -3.1 (-5.9) | 140.0 (+21.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | TLSA 93 – 66 ECU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | ECU 84 – 79 TLSA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ECU 62 – 57 TLSA |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ECU 62 – 60 TLSA |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ECU 76 – 66 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-9 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#301) | -0.6 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#302) | -0.31 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#295) | -0.63 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#331) | 0.487 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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