Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +155 ECU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -2.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -2.8 (+0.8) | 144.2 (-22.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -3.6 (+1.6) | 141.1 (-19.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -2.6 (+0.6) | 144.6 (-22.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -2.9 (+0.9) | 145.9 (-23.9) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | TLSA 93 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ECU 85 – 76 TLSA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | ECU 84 – 79 TLSA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ECU 62 – 57 TLSA |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ECU 76 – 66 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 6-12 |
| Home | 4-10 | 10-6 |
| Away | 0-12 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#314) | -2.4 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#316) | -0.32 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#300) | -0.27 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#324) | 0.459 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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