East Carolina
Pirates
84
–
79
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
American Athletic Conference
Tulsa
Golden Hurricane
Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -175 TLSA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -0.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -0.1 (+4.9) | 141.0 (+22.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -1.2 (+3.8) | 139.6 (+23.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -0.6 (+5.6) | 138.8 (+24.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -0.7 (+5.7) | 140.0 (+23.0) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | TLSA 93 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ECU 85 – 76 TLSA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ECU 62 – 57 TLSA |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ECU 62 – 60 TLSA |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ECU 76 – 66 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-9 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#179) | -1.4 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#213) | -0.08 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#195) | -0.25 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#248) | 0.478 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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