Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -225 TLSA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -6.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -5.7 (+4.3) | 143.6 (-1.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -4.6 (+5.4) | 142.3 (-0.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -4.5 (+5.5) | 142.4 (-0.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -5.3 (+4.7) | 142.8 (-0.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | TLSA 93 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ECU 85 – 76 TLSA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | ECU 84 – 79 TLSA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ECU 62 – 57 TLSA |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ECU 62 – 60 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#219) | -5.6 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#209) | -1.33 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#200) | -1.37 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#243) | 0.421 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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