Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | ECU -210 TLSA +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -1.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -2.8 (+2.2) | 138.8 (-19.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -1.0 (+4.0) | 137.6 (-18.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -0.2 (+4.8) | 137.4 (-18.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -1.1 (+3.9) | 138.4 (-19.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | TLSA 93 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ECU 85 – 76 TLSA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | ECU 84 – 79 TLSA |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ECU 62 – 60 TLSA |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ECU 76 – 66 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-9 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#220) | 0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#252) | -0.14 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#249) | -0.28 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#268) | 0.463 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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