Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +10 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -5.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -5.2 (-4.8) | 146.2 (+7.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -4.9 (-5.1) | 147.9 (+6.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -5.8 (-4.2) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -4.7 (-5.3) | 149.2 (+4.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NEV 75 – 62 CSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CSU 67 – 59 NEV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | CSU 79 – 71 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CSU 85 – 78 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 25-6 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | 9.4 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#128) | 2.56 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#121) | 2.79 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#115) | 0.607 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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