Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -165 NEV +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -3.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -3.7 (+4.3) | 139.6 (+10.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -4.4 (+3.6) | 137.0 (+13.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -3.5 (+4.5) | 140.2 (+9.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -3.7 (+4.3) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NEV 75 – 62 CSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CSU 67 – 59 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CSU 85 – 78 NEV |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NEV 77 – 74 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#71) | 8.3 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#67) | 1.00 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#68) | 1.48 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#85) | 0.538 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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