Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -210 NEV +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -3.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -3.3 (+4.7) | 136.2 (-10.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -3.4 (+4.6) | 134.6 (-8.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -4.7 (+3.3) | 138.1 (-12.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -3.6 (+4.4) | 138.5 (-12.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NEV 75 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | CSU 79 – 71 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CSU 85 – 78 NEV |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NEV 77 – 74 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#58) | 7.6 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#51) | 0.73 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#52) | 1.21 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#56) | 0.516 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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