Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -125 NEV +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +13 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -4.6 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -1.4 (-14.4) | 143.7 (-6.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -5.1 (-18.1) | 144.9 (-7.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -3.2 (-16.2) | 146.0 (-9.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -2.9 (-15.9) | 147.6 (-10.6) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2025 | CSU 67 – 59 NEV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | CSU 79 – 71 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CSU 85 – 78 NEV |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NEV 77 – 74 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 17-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#80) | 7.1 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#83) | 1.74 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#69) | 2.47 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#75) | 0.616 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 44.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 36.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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