Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -300 NEV +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -4.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -5.5 (-8.5) | 139.4 (+11.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -3.7 (-6.7) | 137.6 (+13.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -4.8 (-7.8) | 136.9 (+14.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -4.7 (-7.7) | 138.6 (+12.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NEV 75 – 62 CSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CSU 67 – 59 NEV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | CSU 79 – 71 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CSU 85 – 78 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#30) | 11.3 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#25) | 2.28 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#25) | 2.69 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#16) | 0.588 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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