Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -175 CSU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +7 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -0.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -0.2 (-6.8) | 135.8 (+27.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -0.5 (-7.5) | 134.3 (+28.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -0.7 (-7.7) | 137.3 (+25.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -0.7 (-7.7) | 137.3 (+25.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NEV 75 – 62 CSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CSU 67 – 59 NEV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | CSU 79 – 71 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NEV 77 – 74 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#43) | 11.9 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#10) | 2.14 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#16) | 2.73 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#21) | 0.604 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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