Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -19.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | USC -22.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -16.9 (-10.9) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -18.5 (-12.5) | 137.6 (+4.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -18.8 (-12.8) | 137.8 (+4.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -18.7 (-12.7) | 138.3 (+3.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#26) | -6.8 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#28) | -1.59 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#30) | -1.90 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#33) | 0.395 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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