Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +9 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -11.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -9.9 (-18.9) | 132.8 (-11.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -9.1 (-18.1) | 134.0 (-13.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -8.7 (-17.7) | 133.4 (-12.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -7.9 (-16.9) | 134.0 (-13.0) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-6 | 4-9 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 58.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#197) | -9.7 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#243) | -2.00 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#229) | -2.19 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#234) | 0.418 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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