Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SCU +125 SMC -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -1.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -1.7 (+6.7) | 139.0 (+10.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -0.5 (+5.5) | 141.6 (+7.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -0.6 (+4.4) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCU -0.6 (+4.4) | 140.9 (+8.1) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | SCU 76 – 71 SMC |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SMC 86 – 67 SCU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SCU 62 – 54 SMC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SMC 73 – 64 SCU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | SMC 67 – 54 SCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 61.3 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#76) | 12.1 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#77) | 2.66 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#76) | 2.96 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#62) | 0.640 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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