Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -8.0 Push |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -10.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -7.9 (+0.1) | 132.4 (-0.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -7.5 (+0.5) | 134.4 (-2.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -8.1 (-0.1) | 134.4 (-2.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -8.6 (-0.6) | 134.6 (-2.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MIZ 81 – 80 VAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VAN 97 – 93 MIZ |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MIZ 75 – 66 VAN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | VAN 68 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 7, 2023 | MIZ 85 – 82 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-8 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#75) | 0.6 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#89) | 0.61 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#101) | 0.87 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#96) | 0.524 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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