Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -111 MIZ -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -2.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -2.3 (+9.3) | 139.4 (-10.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -1.5 (+8.5) | 139.2 (-10.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -2.4 (+9.4) | 136.5 (-7.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -2.6 (+9.6) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MIZ 81 – 80 VAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VAN 97 – 93 MIZ |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MIZ 75 – 66 VAN |
| Jan 7, 2023 | MIZ 85 – 82 VAN |
| Feb 9, 2022 | VAN 70 – 62 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 0-18 |
| Home | 8-10 | 6-11 |
| Away | 1-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L19 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#213) | 3.1 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#283) | 0.04 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#281) | 0.34 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#260) | 0.495 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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