Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -350 VAN +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -11.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -8.4 (-5.4) | 153.5 (+13.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -10.0 (-7.0) | 155.2 (+11.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -9.6 (-6.6) | 155.1 (+11.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -10.0 (-7.0) | 156.1 (+10.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MIZ 81 – 80 VAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VAN 97 – 93 MIZ |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MIZ 75 – 66 VAN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | VAN 68 – 61 MIZ |
| Feb 9, 2022 | VAN 70 – 62 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-3 | 14-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#43) | 3.3 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#16) | 0.50 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#20) | 0.47 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#31) | 0.530 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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