Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -225 VAN +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -4.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -5.0 (+4.0) | 154.0 (-13.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -2.8 (+6.2) | 152.0 (-11.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -4.0 (+5.0) | 153.3 (-12.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -4.2 (+4.8) | 153.5 (-12.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MIZ 81 – 80 VAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VAN 97 – 93 MIZ |
| Feb 3, 2024 | VAN 68 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 7, 2023 | MIZ 85 – 82 VAN |
| Feb 9, 2022 | VAN 70 – 62 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#32) | 13.6 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#28) | 2.45 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.93 (#23) | 2.97 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#66) | 0.563 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 37.1% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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