Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +100 MIZ -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +4 | 190 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -2.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -1.2 (+5.2) | 159.4 (+30.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -1.7 (+5.7) | 158.0 (+32.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -1.3 (+5.3) | 160.4 (+29.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -0.6 (+4.6) | 162.0 (+28.0) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MIZ 81 – 80 VAN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MIZ 75 – 66 VAN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | VAN 68 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 7, 2023 | MIZ 85 – 82 VAN |
| Feb 9, 2022 | VAN 70 – 62 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 18-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#41) | 18.2 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#15) | 3.35 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#30) | 4.26 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#45) | 0.606 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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