Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ +136 VAN -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +1 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -8.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -7.1 (+8.1) | 153.1 (+7.9) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -4.8 (+5.8) | 151.7 (+9.3) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -5.7 (+6.7) | 151.0 (+10.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -5.3 (+6.3) | 153.3 (+7.7) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | VAN 97 – 93 MIZ |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MIZ 75 – 66 VAN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | VAN 68 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 7, 2023 | MIZ 85 – 82 VAN |
| Feb 9, 2022 | VAN 70 – 62 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#61) | 20.9 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#49) | 3.38 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#54) | 4.59 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#70) | 0.637 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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