Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +25 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -8.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -10.9 (+14.1) | 136.9 (-9.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -6.5 (+18.5) | 136.8 (-9.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -6.6 (+18.4) | 136.8 (-9.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -6.8 (+18.2) | 137.3 (-10.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SBU 70 – 67 FOR |
| Jan 10, 2026 | FOR 81 – 77 SBU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SBU 74 – 72 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SBU 86 – 66 FOR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SBU 85 – 67 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#108) | -0.4 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#83) | -0.28 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#93) | -0.16 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#71) | 0.483 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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