Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +4 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -11.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -9.3 (-13.3) | 148.0 (+26.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -9.0 (-13.0) | 148.3 (+25.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -8.8 (-12.8) | 149.7 (+24.3) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -9.0 (-13.0) | 149.5 (+24.5) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BALL 85 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | BALL 68 – 67 CMU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CMU 69 – 67 BALL |
| Jan 22, 2025 | BALL 82 – 80 CMU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | BALL 79 – 71 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 2-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#256) | -12.8 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#211) | -1.46 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#215) | -2.06 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#225) | 0.441 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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