Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | BALL +125 CMU -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | CMU -0.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -0.1 (-1.9) | 146.0 (-10.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -0.5 (-1.5) | 145.8 (-9.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -0.1 (-2.1) | 144.5 (-8.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -0.2 (-1.8) | 146.5 (-10.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BALL 85 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | BALL 68 – 67 CMU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | BALL 82 – 80 CMU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | BALL 79 – 71 CMU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | CMU 71 – 65 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#264) | -2.5 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#278) | -0.90 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#292) | -0.98 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#297) | 0.477 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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