Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | CMU -185 BALL +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +2 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | CMU -6.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -5.2 (-7.2) | 142.0 (+20.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -4.4 (-6.4) | 140.8 (+21.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -4.8 (-6.8) | 141.3 (+20.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -5.0 (-7.0) | 142.4 (+19.6) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BALL 85 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | BALL 68 – 67 CMU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CMU 69 – 67 BALL |
| Feb 28, 2024 | BALL 79 – 71 CMU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | CMU 71 – 65 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#220) | -5.8 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#220) | -1.42 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#207) | -1.90 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#181) | 0.416 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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