Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -142 CMU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -1.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -0.3 (+16.3) | 136.7 (+17.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -0.0 (+16.0) | 136.3 (+17.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -0.2 (+15.8) | 132.7 (+21.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -0.2 (+15.8) | 133.6 (+20.4) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BALL 68 – 67 CMU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CMU 69 – 67 BALL |
| Jan 22, 2025 | BALL 82 – 80 CMU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | BALL 79 – 71 CMU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | CMU 71 – 65 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#293) | -6.3 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#293) | -1.30 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#311) | -1.44 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#326) | 0.446 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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