Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | CMU -188 BALL +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +8 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | CMU -2.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -1.5 (-9.5) | 135.7 (+14.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -0.2 (-7.8) | 135.2 (+14.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -2.3 (-10.3) | 132.9 (+17.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -2.6 (-10.6) | 132.8 (+17.2) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BALL 85 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | BALL 68 – 67 CMU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CMU 69 – 67 BALL |
| Jan 22, 2025 | BALL 82 – 80 CMU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | CMU 71 – 65 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#277) | -5.4 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#150) | -1.04 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#198) | -1.23 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#157) | 0.442 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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