Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -6.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -8.2 (+2.2) | 132.3 (+1.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -6.1 (+0.1) | 132.0 (+2.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -6.3 (+0.3) | 131.6 (+2.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -6.6 (+0.6) | 131.8 (+2.2) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | AKR 94 – 55 NIU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | AKR 73 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | AKR 80 – 70 NIU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AKR 80 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | AKR 73 – 51 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 3-8 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#312) | 1.0 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#287) | 0.62 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#290) | 0.57 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#285) | 0.534 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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