Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +220 AKR -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +22 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -1.1 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -3.4 (-18.6) | 146.6 (-22.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -4.1 (-17.9) | 143.9 (-19.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -2.2 (-19.8) | 146.5 (-22.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -2.5 (-19.5) | 147.4 (-23.4) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | AKR 94 – 55 NIU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | AKR 73 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | AKR 80 – 70 NIU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AKR 80 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | AKR 76 – 51 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-9 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#211) | 3.4 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#146) | 0.72 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#155) | 1.10 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#116) | 0.544 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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