Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +39 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -25.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -24.3 (+14.7) | 150.9 (-1.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -22.3 (+16.7) | 154.2 (-5.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -20.2 (+18.8) | 153.6 (-4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -23.9 (+15.1) | 154.2 (-5.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2025 | AKR 73 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | AKR 80 – 70 NIU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AKR 80 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | AKR 73 – 51 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | AKR 76 – 51 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#61) | -12.3 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#57) | -1.55 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#65) | -2.35 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#27) | 0.430 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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