Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -1200 NIU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +25 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -12.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -11.8 (+13.2) | 139.0 (-12.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -12.4 (+12.6) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -11.0 (+14.0) | 139.9 (-12.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -11.2 (+13.8) | 140.1 (-13.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | AKR 94 – 55 NIU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | AKR 73 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | AKR 80 – 70 NIU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AKR 80 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | AKR 73 – 51 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#140) | -6.9 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#115) | -1.22 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#128) | -1.34 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#116) | 0.459 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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