Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +1000 AKR -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +10 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -17.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -13.8 (+3.8) | 156.3 (-6.3) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -14.9 (+4.9) | 156.4 (-6.4) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -13.9 (+3.9) | 153.2 (-3.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -13.6 (+3.6) | 154.1 (-4.1) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | AKR 94 – 55 NIU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | AKR 73 – 63 NIU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AKR 80 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | AKR 73 – 51 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | AKR 76 – 51 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 17-1 |
| Home | 5-10 | 16-0 |
| Away | 1-15 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -15.7 (#356) | 5.1 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#345) | 0.88 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.98 (#341) | 0.89 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.372 (#351) | 0.568 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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