Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -2000 NIU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -16.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -13.3 (-6.3) | 139.0 (+14.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -14.2 (-7.2) | 139.4 (+13.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -12.3 (-5.3) | 140.2 (+12.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -12.7 (-5.7) | 138.4 (+14.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | AKR 94 – 55 NIU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | AKR 73 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | AKR 80 – 70 NIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | AKR 73 – 51 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | AKR 76 – 51 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#99) | -8.1 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#96) | -0.93 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#101) | -1.27 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#53) | 0.466 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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