Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -230 ILL +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -5.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -5.7 (+10.3) | 150.3 (+1.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.6 (+9.4) | 153.2 (-1.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -6.2 (+9.8) | 154.2 (-2.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.7 (+8.3) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ILL 88 – 82 PUR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PUR 77 – 71 ILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 ILL |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PUR 76 – 71 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#5) | 16.8 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#7) | 2.86 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.40 (#6) | 3.43 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#10) | 0.622 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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