Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -125 PUR +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -1.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -0.5 (-5.5) | 161.9 (-13.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -0.6 (-5.4) | 163.9 (-15.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -0.3 (-5.7) | 164.1 (-16.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -0.3 (-5.7) | 162.2 (-14.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ILL 88 – 82 PUR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 PUR |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 ILL |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PUR 76 – 71 ILL |
| Feb 9, 2022 | PUR 84 – 68 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#14) | 22.0 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#18) | 3.77 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#11) | 4.53 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#14) | 0.688 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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