Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -200 PUR +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -4.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.0 (+3.0) | 155.7 (+12.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.2 (+2.8) | 160.5 (+7.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.1 (+2.9) | 160.6 (+7.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.9 (+4.1) | 158.5 (+9.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ILL 88 – 82 PUR |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PUR 77 – 71 ILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 ILL |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PUR 76 – 71 ILL |
| Feb 9, 2022 | PUR 84 – 68 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#14) | 18.1 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#28) | 2.91 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#24) | 3.73 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#44) | 0.631 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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