Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | PUR -550 ILL +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -9.3 (-4.3) | 154.7 (+6.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.5 (-3.5) | 155.7 (+5.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -10.0 (-5.0) | 154.3 (+6.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -8.9 (-3.9) | 154.3 (+6.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ILL 88 – 82 PUR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PUR 77 – 71 ILL |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PUR 76 – 71 ILL |
| Feb 9, 2022 | PUR 84 – 68 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 22.8 (#4) | 17.1 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#3) | 2.83 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.27 (#2) | 3.95 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.694 (#1) | 0.618 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 45.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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