Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -270 ILL +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +6 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -3.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -3.5 (-9.5) | 145.7 (+24.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.6 (-9.6) | 143.2 (+26.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.0 (-10.0) | 145.1 (+24.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.4 (-10.4) | 144.8 (+25.2) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PUR 77 – 71 ILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 ILL |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PUR 76 – 71 ILL |
| Feb 9, 2022 | PUR 84 – 68 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 22.0 (#6) | 21.9 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#8) | 3.79 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.24 (#9) | 5.11 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#6) | 0.635 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.14 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 13.4% |
Game Analysis
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