Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | PUR -345 ILL +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -7.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.8 (-2.8) | 137.5 (+9.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -7.9 (-2.9) | 138.1 (+8.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.7 (-1.7) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.0 (-2.0) | 140.2 (+6.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ILL 88 – 82 PUR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PUR 77 – 71 ILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 ILL |
| Feb 9, 2022 | PUR 84 – 68 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#10) | 12.3 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#4) | 1.98 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#4) | 2.44 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#5) | 0.564 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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