Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -5.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -4.9 (+10.1) | 146.2 (-7.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -4.4 (+10.6) | 146.9 (-7.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.6 (+10.4) | 147.4 (-8.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -4.5 (+10.5) | 148.6 (-9.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#72) | 5.6 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#67) | 2.15 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#81) | 2.32 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#45) | 0.585 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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