Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -7.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.5 (-1.5) | 143.1 (+0.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -4.4 (-1.6) | 148.6 (-4.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -4.4 (-1.6) | 148.6 (-4.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -4.4 (-1.6) | 147.8 (-3.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#70) | 18.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#70) | 2.96 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#58) | 3.70 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#113) | 0.631 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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