Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +1 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -0.8 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.1 (-0.9) | 129.4 (-14.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -0.5 (-1.5) | 131.8 (-16.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -0.4 (-1.4) | 131.5 (-16.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -0.1 (-1.1) | 130.9 (-15.9) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MICH 110 – 69 PSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | MICH 74 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 27, 2025 | MICH 76 – 72 PSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PSU 66 – 57 MICH |
| Jan 7, 2024 | PSU 79 – 73 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#86) | 10.5 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#76) | 1.46 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#80) | 2.04 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#80) | 0.579 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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